Bluefield, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

349
FXUS61 KRNK 141200
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
700 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated AVN, otherwise no change to actual forecast. Much
needed rain is coming Sunday, in spite of Weather Prediction
Center nudging Marginal Risk, 5 percent chance, for Excessive
Rainfall a little farther north into VA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry today. Widespread rain Sunday.

2) Fair weather returns Monday and Tuesday along with
a warming trend. Low probability for showers mid-week.

3) Will there be another late week storm?

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry today. Widespread rain Sunday.

Get out and enjoy today, because Sunday is going to be wet.
After a cool start this morning expect temperatures to rebound
to about 5 degrees above the seasonal norm for this afternoon.
Clouds will be on the increase late in the afternoon with
classic pre-storm cirrostratus arriving prior to sunset.

Low over the Southern Plains will move east today, then trek
east-northeast across the Mid-MS Valley and Deep South tonight.
then across the Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Sunday.
Widespread clouds and rain will accompany this feature with
opportunity for three quarters /0.75/ to as much as an inch and
a quarter /1.25/ across our forecast area.

QPF ensemble QPF and PWAT anomalies are 1 to 3 standard
deviations  above normal for this system for this time of year.
Ensemble mean QPF are around a half inch to a three-quarters of
an inch over WV, increasing to near an inch along and south of
the Blue Ridge mountains. This will be a good soaking that
should help rid the remaining snow and ice. The Weather
Prediction Center has expanded the marginal risk (5% chance)
area for excessive rainfall to include areas along and east of
the Blue Ridge. As such can`t rule out some ponding of water and
poor drainage issues. For the most part we need the rain and
the ongoing drought should mitigate the overall flood threat.

Rain is expected to spread from west to east across the area
after midnight tonight with a near 100% chance for rain areawide
Sunday with moderate intensity. Temperatures are expected to
remain above freezing through the event. Can`t rule out a brief
mix of sleet or wet snow at the onset across the higher
elevations, but nothing that would have any impacts.

In similar fashion, the rain is expected to come to an end from
west to east Sunday night with gradual clearing taking place
areawide Monday as to storm system moves east and off the coast.


Key Message 2: Fair weather returns Monday and Tuesday along with
a warming trend. Low probability for showers mid-week.

Benign weather follows the weekend system until another
disturbance offers a chance of precipitation Mid-week. This
perturbation is in the form of a weak surface low pressure
system that moves through the Great Lakes and provides a small
chance of precipitation for the more northern counties of our
forecast area. Impacts are expected to be low as the system may
be too far north to affect us, but confidence is high that any
precipitation associated with it will be rain given the warm
temperatures.

Speaking of which, the most notable change in the weather will
be a warming trend and higher humidity. (The words "warm" and
"humid" are used very loosely in this discussion as it is still
winter). Ridging over the Gulf of America will result in mostly
zonal flow over the Mid-Atlantic and will sustain warm
temperatures for this time of year. Highs may get into the 50s
and 60s at some point during the week. Southwesterly flow will
also promote increasing low level moisture transport in the form
of higher dew points into the 40s and 50s.

Something to monitor, this deviation from normal is to the
positive side of climatology. Warmer than normal temperatures
in late winter and early spring lead to fire weather concerns.
Increasing sun angle and sunny days will lead to drying of dead
grass and leaf litter...basically our start to fire season. For
those that are unaware, the 4PM burn law for Virgina goes in
effect Sunday Feb 15th and continues through April 30th.


Key Message 3: Will there be another late week storm?

Forecast confidence decreases as global models diverge on the
evolution of a deep trough emerging from the Rockies. There is
potential for surface cyclogenesis over the central Plains that
could lift northeastward towards the Great Lakes, bringing
another round of precipitation and potentially breezy conditions
to the Ohio Valley heading into the weekend.

If the Low does materialize it will likely pass to our north,
accompanied by a cold front that would sweep across the forecast
area over the weekend. Impacts are difficult to ascertain given
how far out this event is, but the signal is there for
potential showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant aviation concerns through midnight tonight. After
midnight tonight expect lowering cloud bases with cigs
developing blo 3kft after 09Z/4AM along with rain and
diminishing visibility by daybreak Sunday.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sunday morning, conditions are forecast to deteriorate to sub-
VFR as rain spreads west to east across the area. We may see a
little freezing drizzle early Sunday in the Greenbrier Valley,
north of BLF and LWB before warmer air moves in. Expect moderate
to heavy rain at times which will impact vsbys. Precipitation
moves east of the area Sunday night into Monday morning.

VFR conditions develop later Monday morning and last through
Wednesday. The exception will be some upslope rain showers
and borderline MVFR ceilings in the mountains Wednesday.

Winds will generally be light and variable through Tuesday, as a
surface frontal system stays south of the area and high pressure
builds in. By Wednesday, increasing SW winds may become gusty
to 25 knots as a weak system passes by.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...PM