Bluefield, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

321
FXUS61 KRNK 180600
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
100 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring a light wintry mix for late
tonight into Saturday morning before changing to rain by
Saturday afternoon. The precipitation should switch back to snow
by Saturday night and Sunday as an Arctic air mass arrives to
bring the coldest temperatures so far this winter for early next
week. Another low pressure system may develop along the Gulf
Coast during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 720 PM EST Friday...

Temperatures were adjusted this evening as some clear skies and
calm winds across the Piedmont have allowed for temperatures to
drop a couple degrees faster than forecast. With upper and mid
level clouds quickly pushing in, temperatures may start to rise
or remain stationary. The forecast continues to remain on track
for wintry precipitation to move into the region for higher
terrain locations during the early morning hours Saturday. No
other changes were made to the forecast this evening.


Previous Discussion:

Key messages:

1) Confidence is high for clouds increasing tonight with a light
wintry mix entering Saturday morning.

2) Any mixed precipitation should transition to rain by midday
Saturday and taper off by Saturday evening.

Clouds should gradually increase from the west overnight, while
temperatures drop to near or just below freezing. A low
pressure system will approach the Appalachian Mountains after
midnight as a southern stream shortwave trough phases with the
upper longwave trough from the north to advect moisture. Thermal
profiles allow a light wintry mix starting early Saturday
morning. Light icing accumulations are possible from freezing
rain in the mountains, while light snow and sleet amounts are
anticipated across the higher elevations of northwest North
Carolina, the Alleghany Highlands of Virginia, and Greenbrier
County of West Virginia.

Warm air advection near the surface from a southerly flow should
push temperatures above freezing during Saturday morning.
Whatever frozen accumulations occur should melt by midday as all
precipitation transitions to rain. The rain should taper across
the Piedmont by Saturday afternoon, while drizzle and low clouds
could linger along and west of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures
by Saturday afternoon should reach the 40s for most locations,
while lower 50s may be possible towards Danville. The highest
elevations, however, may struggle to reach the upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Arctic Cold Front Arrives Sunday.

2) Bitter Cold Temperatures Expected Monday and beyond.

3) Increased Threat for Accumulating Snow Sunday.

Deep upper trough carves out across the eastern U.S. in the wake
of a Mid-Atlantic developing coastal system that is deeper and
more problematic in terms of snowfall Sunday than expected in
prior day`s forecasts. This deepening will initiate the Arctic
surge bringing in the coldest temperatures since December 2022.
However, unlike the late December 2022 cold outbreak, this will
last much longer, likely Monday through Thursday at a minimum.
Temperatures Sunday will be on a non-diurnal trend from the 30s
in the morning to the teens by sunset west and 20s east. By
Monday morning, temperatures will already be down in the single
digits to even near 0 in the higher elevations of the western
mountains with teens in the Piedmont. Thus, the need for an
Extreme Cold Watch.

With respect to snow, models have trended stronger with a
coastal low developing off the VA coast Sunday in response to a
strong southern stream shortwave. A notable increase from
yesterday`s forecast. Snow amounts of 1-2 inches now appear
possible across the northern parts of the RNK Piedmont counties,
such as the Lynchburg and Lexington areas. The heavier snow
amounts (i.e., Advisory or Warning criteria) will remain north
of I-64 as the coastal low rapidly intensifies going up the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, the upslope snow
machine will begin with strong cold advection by Sunday
afternoon/evening and continue into Monday. Hence, the Winter
Storm Watch for western Greenbrier county.

/Confidence Levels for Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Speed, High Confidence in Wind
  Direction.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Friday...

Key messages:

1) Extended Period of Bitter Cold and Well Below Freezing
Temperatures. Extreme Cold Watch issued.

2) Additional Potential Snow Events Possible Through the
Period.

Bitter Arctic cold expected through the period. Coldest
temperatures since December 2022, but much longer lasting than
that cold spell. Temperatures will plunge into the single digits
and teens to even single digits below zero as soon as Monday
morning and struggle to even reach 20 degrees through Wednesday.
Actual low temperatures near -10 possible in the usual icebox
locations like Burkes Garden and Lewisburg midweek. Hence the
Extreme Cold Watch which has been issued for areas along/west of
the Blue Ridge. The coldest combination of temperatures and
wind will occur Wednesday morning when large areas of the
western part of the CWA meet Extreme Cold Warning criteria.
Temperatures will very slowly moderate Thursday through Friday,
but likely remain below freezing for areas along/west of the
Blue Ridge until Friday.

With respect to precipitation, the very cold/dry air appears to
win out for the most part. However, vigorous southern stream
short waves are noted tracking from South Texas to the Mid-
Atlantic region. The Tue-Wed system is tracking a bit further
north than earlier expected potentially bringing light snow to
mainly the Piedmont. Upslope flow will add additional minor snow
amounts to the western mountains mainly Tuesday. Another
southern stream system will need to be watched by Friday.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EST Saturday...

Ceilings lower as the atmosphere moistens from an approaching
low pressure system.

Have introduced the precipitation into the local TAFs an hour or
two earlier based on the latest radar trends. A light wintry
mix accompanied by MVFR ceilings will begin in the mountains
first then spread east. The potential for a mix of snow and
sleet is highest at LWB, while a mix of rain and sleet is
possible for BLF and BCB. Even LYH could briefly see a mix of
rain and sleet, but ROA appears warm enough for only light
rain.

Have added LLWS to the KROA/KLYH/KLWB and KBCB TAFs for this
morning with an increasing LLJ from the southwest.

All sites should transition to rain as the morning progresses
due to a light south wind pushing surface temperatures above
freezing, so whatever frozen precipitation amounts occur will
melt before midday.

The rain coverage should decrease first at LYH and DAN by the
afternoon. Light drizzle or fog may persist for BCB, BLF, and
LWB through this evening. The wind should shift more towards
the west and southwest as the day ends.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The wind will swing towards the northwest in the wake of a low
pressure system, so the rain should change to snow in the
mountains by early Sunday morning.

Rain may hold in the east and fade on Sunday as drier air
arrives. Winds will become gusty from the northwest by Sunday
evening, while mountain snow showers continue into Sunday night.

Conditions should improve to VFR by Monday as the coldest air
so far this winter arrives. A low pressure system will track
along the Gulf Coast during Tuesday and Wednesday, but
confidence is too low for any impacts as most of the moisture
may stay too far to the south.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Wednesday
     morning for VAZ007-009>020.
NC...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Wednesday
     morning for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Wednesday
     morning for WVZ042>044-507-508.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Monday morning
     for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AB/PW
NEAR TERM...AB/EB/PW
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AS/PW